Almanac Trader

First eight or nine trading days of August have exhibited weakness while mid-month has been better. This pattern holds in pre-election years with greater magnitude (dashed lines). Note the bullish cluster from August 15 through 17. This strength is visible above on trading days 11, 12 and 13. The end of August tends to be softer when traders evacuate Wall Street for a summer finale. The last five days were generally bearish from 1996 to 2013 but have been positive in seven of the last nine years. In 2022, S&P 500 dropped 4.5% in the last five trading days of August. S&P 500 has also only been up nine times on the penultimate day of August in the past 27 years.