LIVE UPDATES | CONCLUDED
8 months ago
6 Things to Watch for a Market Bottom
The markets are in freefall as investors around the world take some money off the table. Wondering when it will end? 22V Research senior managing director John Roque has a few things investors can watch for.
1. The Japanese yen needs to stop strengthening against the dollar. The yen has gained roughly 10% in value against the dollar in a matter of weeks after Bank of Japan officials made hawkish comments about interest rates. Yen strength has ruined profits from carry trades–when investors sell something in one currency and buy something in another currency. A settling down of the exchange rate would give carry-trade investors a chance to catch their breath.
2. “Leadership stocks need to stop going down,” says Roque. That’s Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and their tech-giant peers. That would be a sign investors don’t feel like raising more cash and are happy with the risk in their portfolios. Nvidia stock is down some 7% in early trading Monday. It hasn’t happened yet, but shares have some technical support in the high-$90s.
3. Stock indexes becoming oversold would be another sign the worst has passed. Oversold is a term technical traders use to describe things going down a lot quickly. It also can be interpreted as there is no one left to sell. The S&P 500’s relative strength–a measure of oversold or overbought–is about 40. A reading of 30 is oversold. A reading of 50 is average.
4. Bond prices need to stop going up. Investors piling into high-quality bonds is another example of fear-based investing. The 5-year U.S. Treasury bond yield has gone from about 4.5% to 3.6% in a month. (Bond prices move opposite to bond yields.)
5. Federal Reserve “talk about the Jackson Hole agenda changing” would be another positive, says Roque. The Fed meets in the Wyoming resort town to discuss the economy in late August. Chatter about rate cuts would help investors’ psyches.
6. The VIX volatility index peaking would be another sign things will start improving. The VIX is up 245% over the past month.
All of those things are worth watching. None of them are happening just yet.