Almanac Trader

Over the past 21 years from 2002-2022 July’s first trading has the second-best record up 85.7% of the time on the S&P 500 with an average gain of 0.35%. Only August’s third to last trading day has a better record up 19 of 21 with an average gain of 0.57%.

DJIA’s first trading day of July has produced gains 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.31%. NASDAQ splits the middle up 81.0% (0.31% average gain) of the time. July’s first trading day is the third best performing first trading day of all twelve months based upon DJIA points gained with DJIA gaining a cumulative 1668.15 points since 1998.

Looking back even further to 1989, S&P 500 has advanced 88.2% of the time (up 30 times in 34 years) with an average gain of 0.50%. DJIA has advanced 28 times in the same 34 years (82.4%) and NASDAQ has risen in 26 of those years (76.5%) with an average advance of 0.34% in all years. No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength, which makes a solid case for declaring the first trading day of July the most bullish day of the year over the past 34 years.