About
Almanac Trader
I am the editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter. I use historical patterns and market seasonality in conjunction with fundamental and technical analysis...
+ FOLLOW THIS TUMBLR
Best Six Months Rally Respite Underway April Tracks Election Year Seasonality
It’s been a banner “Best Six Months (BSM)” (November-April) for the Dow and S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through our April 2, 2024 Seasonal MACD Sell Signal), DJIA gained 16.6%, S&P 500 20.1% – double the historical average BSM gains. These big gains have not left much on the table until later this year.
Risks are more elevated now. Sentiment continues to run high. Valuations are extended. Geopolitical tensions have not eased. And persistent inflation pressures have the Fed in no rush to cut rates. As the election campaign rhetoric heats up and the Best Six Months comes to a close, we are shifting to a more cautious stance.
As you can see in the chart of April 2024 compared to election year Aprils since 1950 the market is tracking the softer election year April pattern
quantifiedstrategies liked this
earfqwake liked this
hydralisk98 liked this
haus-of-commons liked this 
jeffhirsch posted this