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Almanac Trader
I am the editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter. I use historical patterns and market seasonality in conjunction with fundamental and technical analysis...
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Will the (year of the) Dragon slay the Bear in China
This Saturday, February 10, is Lunar New Year or Chinese New Year and it will usher in the year of the dragon. Traditionally, the dragon has been a symbol of good luck, strength, and health. All of which have been lacking for China’s Shanghai Comp and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indexes as both have languished since peaking in late 2021. Some signs of a possible turnaround have begun to materialize with both indexes rebounding off their respective 2024 lows.
Historically, trading ahead of the Lunar New Year has been bullish on average with the Hang Seng index solidly advancing during the 30-trading days before the holiday. The Shanghai Comp has also tended to rise, but gains were in the final few trading days before the holiday. After the holiday passes and trading resumes, Shanghai Comp has taken the advantage over the following 60-trading days with gains continuing. Hang Seng has tended to drift into a sideways trading pattern but still produced a modest gain.