The Cook Political Report, in collaboration with BSG and GS Strategy Group, released a second round of findings from the May 2024 Swing State Project Survey today, Thursday, May 30. Last week’s release featured Amy Walter and David Wasserman’s joint analysis of the state of play in the presidential contest in battleground states.
This week, Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter’s analysis focused on down-ballot trends for Senate candidates in battleground states: "A silver lining for Democrats is the strength of Senate Democrats in key swing states. Senate candidates in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are not only outperforming President Joe Biden, but are also leading their GOP opponents by anywhere from two to 12 points."
Senior Editor & Elections Analyst David Wasserman explored engagement patterns and the potential impact on the top of the ticket. “Increasingly, 2024 is a tale of two electorates: not just left versus right or white versus nonwhite, but high-engagement versus low-engagement. And, it’s a major reversal from the past. Trump is excelling with longer engagement voters; but will they show up?”
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- Amy Walter's full analysis can be found here.
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David Wasserman's full analysis can be found here.
- The updated toplines from this release can be found here.
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The Swing State Project Hub can be found here. The May 2024 methodology here.
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Request an interview with Amy Walter or David Wasserman here.
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Swing State Project: Head-to-Head Senate Race Toplines |
In total, 3,969 likely voters across seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) completed the survey. See the full methodology here. |
- Arizona Senate: Gallego (D) leads Lake (R) 46% to 41%.
- Michigan Senate: Slotkin (D) leads an unnamed Republican challenger 44% to 42%.
- Nevada Senate: Rosen (D) leads an unnamed Republican challenger 48% to 41%.
- Pennsylvania Senate: Casey (D) leads McCormick (R) 49% to 41%.
- Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin (D) leads Hovde (R) 49% to 37%.
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All numbers include leaners. |
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Walter Takeaways: Senate Races in Swing States |
- Democratic Senate incumbents are better known than their GOP opponents.
- Democratic Senate candidates aren’t paying as big a price for voters’ economic frustrations.
- Republican Senate candidates have not created separation between themselves and Trump’s most problematic positions.
- Democratic Senate candidates are performing better with lower-propensity voters than Biden is.
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Voters who think Trump will win are less supportive of Republican Senate candidates, suggesting a desire for a Democratic “check” on a Trump presidency.
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Wasserman Takeaways: Voter Engagement In Swing States |
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“High engagement” voters are older and whiter than “low/mid-engagement” voters, but they’re far more likely to be sticking with Biden. Roughly half of high-engagement voters have a college degree (48%) versus 32% of low/mid and just 18% of new registrants. It’s also worth keeping in mind that although Biden is doing better with this “whiter” cohort, the partisan engagement gap transcends racial/ethnic lines and that highly-engaged voters of color are one of his best audiences.
- “Low/mid-engagement” voters and new registrants explain virtually all of Democrats’ down-ballot overperformance relative to Biden. Lower-engagement voters are down on Biden, but they’re not ready to embrace Republicans across the board. This dynamic is particularly pronounced in Senate races.
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“Low/mid-engagement” voters are fundamentally pocketbook voters. Among low/mids, 78% rank the economy/cost of living/inflation as a top voting concern and hold much more pessimistic views of the economy than highly engaged voters.
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“Low/mid-engagement” voters have more serious concerns about Biden's age. Among low/mids, 72% say Biden won't be able to finish a second term, versus 64% of high-engagement voters; 56% of low/mids are more concerned about Biden’s age and capabilities than Trump’s behavior and indictments.
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Despite their lean towards Trump, “low/mid-engagement” voters are more likely than highly-engaged voters to disapprove of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. An overwhelming 65% of low/mids and 68% of new registrants disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a constitutional guarantee to a right to an abortion, compared to just 60% of high-engagement voters. Lower-engagement voters are strongly pro-choice when asked, but at least so far, don’t find Trump’s position objectionable and view cost of living/inflation as an overriding concern.
- Lower turn-out scenario likely represents Biden’s best chance of winning a second term. It’s likely many of these low-engagement voters, including many who hold dim views of both Biden and Trump, will ultimately leave the presidential ballot blank, cast a protest vote for a third-party candidate or not vote at all. But to the extent they do show up, this survey suggests more upside for Trump across the Electoral College battleground.
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About The Swing State Project
The Swing State Project is a collaboration between the Cook Political Report, BSG, and the GS Strategy Group. The goal is to better understand how voters in the seven key battleground states are evaluating the many cross-pressures of the presidential and down-ballot races in their states.
About The Cook Political Report
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter provides independent, non-partisan analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. Founded by Charlie Cook in 1984, the CPR is the preeminent prognosticator and original producer of the 7-point federal and state election rating scale, Cook PVI, and is routinely sourced by national and local media, political professionals, educators and researchers. A recent review of CPR Race Ratings, surveying 1984 through 2022, revealed an impressive record of accuracy: Lean ratings were correct 95% of the time; Likely ratings, 97%; and Solid ratings, 99.9%.
About BSG
BSG is a premier consulting and strategic research firm. Their reputation is built on their relentless pursuit of the right answers. BSG uses innovative techniques that probe deeply into core beliefs, attitudes, and emotions. Their clients are successful because they tap into strongly held values and beliefs. BSG specializes in uncovering the underlying narrative that shapes voters opinions, decisions, and behaviors. They use their research to support advocacy and campaigns at all levels. While BSG is best known as a “Democratic firm,” much of the work focuses on voters in purple and red states. BSG is proud of this heritage, serving as the lead pollster for President Obama’s campaigns and his White House, and is continuing to drive change across the country, working to elect progressive
candidates and pass progressive policies at the ballot box.
About GS Strategy Group
Led by Greg Strimple and Robert Jones, two of the country’s most experienced corporate and political strategists, GS Strategy Group (GSSG) provides its clients with a sophisticated approach to survey research designed to predict trends and political shifts before they occur. The GSSG team has held senior positions in presidential, senatorial, gubernatorial, and congressional campaigns across the country, including as the senior advisor for polling and advertising in Senator John McCain’s 2008 presidential bid. GSSG partners with a wide range of companies, coalitions, and advocacy organizations, including some of America’s most iconic brands, retail chains, media powerhouses, and industry disruptors to execute successful public affairs, marketing and branding campaigns.
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| Please note (and share with your editors) that our analysis should be cited as follows:
Full name: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter General use: The Cook Political Report Shorthand: CPR
Or, in the case of specific reference, cite the analyst directly responsible. Our analysts are:
Amy Walter / Publisher & Editor-in-Chief David Wasserman / Senior Editor & Elections Analyst Jessica Taylor / Editor, U.S. Senate and Governors Erin Covey / Analyst, U.S. House of Representatives Charlie Cook / Founder & Contributor Popular reference links:
Homepage | CPR House Race Ratings | CPR Senate Race Ratings | CPR Governors Race Ratings | CPR Electoral College Ratings | Cook PVI
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