This week from The Cook Political Report:

JESSICA TAYLOR | OCTOBER 30, 2026

Control of the Senate is hanging in the balance, with seven key races still within the margin of error, giving both parties a path to the majority in 2027.

But given the dismal national political environment for Republicans — and the fact that Democrats have multiple scenarios to gain the four seats they need to flip the chamber (of the seven seats sitting in Toss Up, six are held by Republicans) — we see Democrats as the slight favorites.

We are keeping seven races in our Toss Up category because, frankly, we do not know how they will break in the closing days of the election. 

ERIN COVEY | OCTOBER 30, 2026

As the House battleground map has expanded, Democrats now have the potential to win their largest majority since 2009. President Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater even in deep red seats that he won comfortably in 2024, and heavy spending from Republicans doesn’t appear to be moving the needle.

While Democrats won’t reach the 257 seats they had following President Barack Obama’s election — a high water mark for them this century — they could surpass the majorities they had following the 2006 and 2018 blue wave cycles.

We’re now projecting that Democrats will flip 12 to 25 seats, giving them as many as 240 seats in the House. Under the updated ratings, if Democrats win the seats they’re favored in, along with all 18 Toss Ups, they would have 240 seats.

DAVID WASSERMAN | OCTOBER 28, 2026

In 2018, upper-income “Whole Foods suburbs” powered Democrats’ House takeover. This time, there are few Republicans left to oust there. Democrats’ biggest opportunities instead lie in the places that swung hardest toward Trump over the past decade: blue-collar, independent and Hispanic-heavy seats whose voters now feel let down.

2026 is the first modern midterm to combine an unpopular war, high prices and unpopular legislation: the Iran War, gas and grocery costs, and Medicaid cuts. That puts the Midwest and the “Obama-Trump” belt in play, as in 2006. Here are a few GOP seats that could swing 15+ points toward Democrats.

JESSICA TAYLOR | OCTOBER 29, 2026

Democrats are in a prime position to pick up between two and four governor’s seats this cycle, potentially giving them a majority of chief executives for the first time since 2010.

Our final ratings remain largely unchanged, but four are moving in Democrats’ direction.

This week, we shifted 18 races. 

SENATE:
FL Sen: Solid R → Likely R
NE Sen: Likely R → Lean R

HOUSE: 
CO-05: Lean R → Toss Up
FL-07: Likely R → Lean R
FL-09: Likely R → Lean R
IN-05: Likely R → Lean R
NC-05: Solid R → Likely R
NC-09: Solid R → Likely R
NJ-02: Solid R → Likely R
OH-09: Toss Up → Lean D
PA-01: Lean R → Toss Up
PA-08: Toss Up → Lean D
SC-01: Lean R → Toss Up
WA-05: Solid R → Likely R

GOVERNOR:
AZ Gov: Lean D → Likely D
KS Gov: Lean R → Toss Up
NE Gov: Likely R → Lean R
WI Gov: Toss Up → Lean D

CARRIE DANN | OCTOBER 27, 2026

What voters mean by “corruption" depends a lot on their political identity. And if Democrats succeed on Election Day, it will be in part because they were able to meet voters where they are not just on whether corruption matters, but what types of corruption are the most corrosive.

Given that voters are defining corruption in different ways, it’s also worth asking which argument is most compelling. Both parties have invested millions in political ads targeting the issue; according to AdImpact, Democrats have spent $128 million in House and Senate races since the beginning of the year on ads mentioning corruption, while Republicans have spent $68 million.

CHARLIE COOK | OCTOBER 27, 2026

Next Tuesday will be a unicorn election, certainly unlike any of the 11 midterm and 11 presidential elections I have covered. The dynamics are fundamentally different. The most critical segment is not “pure independents.” Nor is it “soft Democrats” or, for that matter, “soft Republicans.” Furthermore, unlike many elections, it doesn’t hinge on the behavior of swingy suburban voters.

Instead, the critical group in this election consists of normally reliable Republicans, many of whom would never normally consider voting for a Democrat. Many of them live in small towns and cities, mountain areas, wooded areas, deserts, and especially farmland. Many drive mid-sized or full-sized pickup trucks, and do so over longer distances than urban and suburban voters. They are also involved in or adjacent to the agricultural economy. They see high gas prices, tariffs, and trade wars, particularly with longtime allies and neighbors, as particularly irksome.