How many voters are really trying to decide between President Biden and former President Trump? Are there that many weighing the pros and cons of each man, actually trying to decide who would better lead the country over the next four years? Or are there more who are trying to decide between voting for one of them and not voting at all?
Some things are constant, starting with the reality that Democrats vote for Democrats and Republicans for Republicans. Depending upon which of the massive voter surveys conducted after the 2020 election you prefer (the National Election Pool, AP-NORC’s VoteCast, or the Pew Research Center’s validated-voter survey), Biden either received 94 or 95 percent of the vote of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, while Trump pulled between 91 and 94 percent of the vote from Republicans and GOP-leaning independents.
Befitting our increased tribalization, 2020 was more partisan than any of the five previous presidential elections, in which the Democratic nominee pulled between 87 and 92 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners and the Republican nominee between 88 and 93 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. Few true partisans ever defect to the other party; if they’re unhappy with their nominee, they are more likely to just stay home or skip over that office on the ballot.
True independents, on the other hand, are a fickle lot, prone to turn against the party they supported four years earlier. Their behavior recalls one of the great lines from the early 20th-century starlet Mae West, who once said,“Between two evils, I always pick the one I never tried before.”
We know that presidential reelection contests are usually referenda on the incumbent, more than a choice between two people. Voters are asked to determine whether they want to extend that president’s contract for another four years. It is pretty clear that the 2020 election was a referendum on Trump’s presidency, and that he lost that referendum. This year could be a referendum on Biden in the same way. But being the first contest between back-to-back presidents since 1892, it could also be a side-by-side comparison, as voters evaluate both men’s recent records. Trump could come out ahead in either of those scenarios.
But until we know who’s going to show up, it’s hard to tell. The polls show no ambiguity that most voters are unenthusiastic about their choice. “Out of 330 million people, is this the best we can do?” goes a popular refrain.
Think about those with little if any partisan or ideological predisposition. They may have real doubts and concerns about Trump’s character, behavior, values, and perhaps whether he has much respect for institutions and the rule of law. Substantively, only the abortion issue really rises to the surface for many of these people.
Conversely, doubts and concerns about Biden are more about his abilities and his judgment, his priorities and objectives. Most don’t doubt Biden’s morals, values, and intentions, but do wonder whether this has been the cruise they signed up for. Just as abortion is the substantive chink in the armor for Trump, it is age and health for Biden, who looks and acts even older than he is.
We have a group of voters who are not enthusiastic about either candidate, and many may well end up deciding not to decide. In some minds, not casting a ballot is becoming a very real and deliberate option, a way to show their displeasure with their choices and the nominees that the two parties have offered up. They look at the field of independent or third-party candidates and do not see a political knight in shining armor worthy of their support.
After record voter-turnout levels in the 2018 midterm and 2020 presidential elections, and an impressively high participation rate in 2022, this election looks to break that streak. But will it be disproportionately lower or higher for either side, or is it more about some demographic groups being even more disillusioned than the others?
If we knew the answer, we’d probably know who’s going to win.
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