Today from The Cook Political Report: 

AMY WALTER | SEPTEMBER 22, 2026

The economic consequences of President Trump's sweeping tariffs and the war in Iran have done the one thing all the controversies of his first term were never able to do: splinter his coalition and sink his approval ratings to all-time lows. As it turns out, many voters were willing to see their standards for the presidency upended as long as it came with a healthy economy.

But with gas prices at over $4 a gallon and diesel costs at an all-time high, the economy has now become Trump’s anvil. And that’s creating another financial problem for Republicans, who now need to inundate midterm races with ad spending to bail out their candidates as the political environment continues to deteriorate.

CHARLIE COOK | SEPTEMBER 22, 2026

A blue wave implies an endorsement or affirmation of Democrats and their policies. But Democrats' brand is still in tatters from 2021-2025, particularly 2021 and 2022, when they not only had President Biden in the White House but also majorities in the Senate and House. Fortunately for Democrats, this election will in most cases not be about them.

It will, of course, be mostly about the occupant of the White House. Over the last 90 days, President Trump’s political standing has transitioned from very unpopular to toxic and now to radioactive.